The study also provides predictions for six levels of mitigating measures, all of which result in substantially lower estimates of both cases and deaths. While these predictions are sobering, they do not represent a health crisis of catastrophic proportions now. This is a fatality rate of 16 per 100,000 (compared to at least 55 per 100,000 in the UK) and a case fatality rate of 1.1% (compared to 14% in UK). According to the study it is estimated that up to 740,000 cases resulting in a maximum of 8,400 deaths could occur in Kenya. The data on the Kenyan Ministry of Health, World Health Organization (WHO), Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites are not disaggregated to the subnational level at the time of writing this paper.Ī study published by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on 30 April 2020 shows a worst-case scenario for the unmitigated spread of the virus in Kenya. It is not currently possible to report on cases at the subnational level due to lack of data. This paper contributes to our understanding of the impact and response to Covid-19 in Kenya, and will be followed with analyses of cross boundary and domestic flows in both Kenya and Uganda. It is the second publication in our series, which aims to better understand the data everyone can access, to identify what is missing, and to try and join the data up to create a more coherent picture in a language that is accessible to all. This analysis follows up Development Initiatives paper looking at the Challenges of data on the financing response to Covid-19. The paper concludes by providing recommendations on how best to improve these measures moving forward.
It then goes on to look at the various measures initiated by the government across these areas and their impacts on the lives of Kenyans – particularly people living in poverty and the most vulnerable. This background paper presents a critical appraisal of the economic impacts of Covid-19 on housing, transport, food security and the labour force in Kenya. To cushion Kenyans from these impacts, the government of Kenya has established the National Coordination Committee on the Response to the Corona Virus Pandemic (NCCRCP) to assess the impact of the virus and come up with various feasible recommendations for the economy. These shocks and disruptions are likely to be felt both in the short and medium term. The country has witnessed job cuts across various sectors, and incomes of businesses and available working hours for staff have fallen significantly.
However, these precautionary measures continue to have negative economic impacts on businesses and workers. The government is undertaking various measures to curb the spread of the virus, including limiting movement in places with reported cases closure of public spaces with high human traffic, such as schools and public events dusk-to-dawn curfews and ensuring basic hygiene and social distancing. Currently, the impact and spread of infections are feared to be exacerbated by the huge number of people living in poverty a weak health infrastructure overcrowding in informal settlements and poor access to basic services such as clean water, sanitation and hygiene. To date, Kenya has the highest number of reported infections and deaths compared to its neighbouring countries. The number of cases of Covid-19 in Kenya have risen rapidly from the first reported case on 13 March 2020 to the publication of this background paper in June 2020.
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